A direction only when the gold signal and the order flow agree. Every call is graded; misses stay.
Next 5 minutesNo callExpected range $3,892.24 – $3,899.16From $3,895.70 at , graded at
Direction: 0 of 30 calls graded so farRange: 2 of 30 graded
–$3,899.10 → $3,895.70 in range
–$3,899.10 → $3,899.10 in range
Next 15 minutesNo callExpected range $3,892.12 – $3,906.08From $3,899.10 at , graded at
Direction: 0 of 30 calls graded so farRange: 0 of 30 graded
Next hourNo callExpected range $3,885.13 – $3,913.07From $3,899.10 at , graded at
Direction: 0 of 30 calls graded so farRange: 0 of 30 graded
Range = gold's typical move over that time from the last 90 minutes of trading (about 2 in 3 outcomes should land inside). Very short calls are close to a coin flip; the range is usually the more useful part. Prices: Hyperliquid's gold perpetual, which tracks spot XAU/USD. Not advice.
Why gold moved today
The total is the two parts added together
Gold's own moveBuying or selling of gold itself+0.76%
Dollar effectThe dollar got stronger, which pushes gold down-0.29%
Total moveWhat the price did+0.47%
Most of today's move is gold itself (72%), not the dollar.
Gold's own move each day for the last 120 trading days, in normal-day units.
PLUS
The rate chain
See each link from the Fed to gold (expectations, bonds, yields, real yields, the dollar) and which way each is pushing gold today.
Building the record: 0 of 20 graded days needed before we show a hit rate (1 day recorded). Neutral days and next-day moves under 0.05% aren't scored.
How it works: gold's move is split into the US dollar's move (its average against 7 major currencies) and what's left, gold's own move. The lean is a reading of today, not a forecast or a probability; every day's lean is graded against the next day's move above, and none are removed. Sources: Yahoo Finance (futures, FX, yields, GVZ); CFTC Commitments of Traders; US Treasury; Hyperliquid gold perpetual (tracks spot XAU/USD; order book, trades, funding). Chart by TradingView. Facts, not advice.